Understanding the recent leak of the Supreme Court draft opinion
What was leaked?
On Monday, May 2, Politico leaked a Supreme Court draft opinion written by Justice Samuel Alito, showing that Roe v. Wade will most likely be overturned with their forthcoming decision on the case Dobbs v. Jackson. Dobbs v. Jackson is a case dealing with a Mississippi state law that would ban abortion after 15 weeks. The central question in this case is: “Is Mississippi’s law banning nearly all abortions after 15 weeks’ gestational age unconstitutional? What the Supreme Court deems as the answer to this question will set a precedent on the constitutionality of abortion, replacing the previous precedent set by Roe v. Wade. In the leaked draft opinion, Alito wrote, “The Constitution makes no reference to abortion, and no such right is implicitly protected by any constitutional provision.” Therefore, the opinion implies that the legality of abortion in the United States will now be up to state legislatures to determine.
What effects will this have on abortion access?
If Roe v. Wade is overturned, access to abortion will be up to state legislators to determine. Thirteen states (Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, and Wyoming) have trigger laws in place. These laws will immediately go into effect once the case is decided. Each state has strict laws with different restrictions, penalties, and exceptions regarding abortion access; you can read more about the specifics for each state here. However, more liberal states will maintain or provide expanded access, protecting the right to a legal, safe abortion. For a more detailed view of how each state will be affected, see the Center for Reproductive Rights’ map here.
When will the rulings in the draft come into effect? Is there still time for the justices to change their votes?
Although this draft opinion will lead to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, there is still hope. The court is expected to publish its ruling in late June or early July. From now to then, it is our job as activists to rise up and create change. The draft can be changed, and justices can vote again, perhaps prompting a change in their ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson.
How will teens be impacted?
If Roe v. Wade falls, conservative states will enact stricter legislation that will compel more teens to carry unwanted pregnancies to term. Forcing a teenager to carry a baby has many effects on them, mentally, physically, and emotionally. Their education will be greatly impacted, because most of the time, teen moms do not graduate from high school after giving birth, and the amount of young moms who go on to receive higher education is even lower. Aside from the negative impact on their educational outcomes, teen mothers face many other stressors and challenges. Read more about how the reversal will affect teens here.
Will the Supreme Court make other rulings on fundamental cases involving women’s health and LGBTQ+ issues?
The direct impacts on other cases are not known yet, but we can speculate what might be the outcome if Roe v. Wade is reversed. According to the Dobbs case and the pending Mississippi law, states cannot yet outlaw contraception, nor refuse to recognize and prosecute same-sex marriage (New Yorker). Although some rights are protected for now, the Supreme Court’s opinion on Dobbs v. Jackson brings up a bigger issue of allowing states to create legislation that impacts some of the most personal parts of one’s life.
What can we do?
The chances of safeguarding abortion rights appear slimmer than before, but there is still a chance that Roe v. Wade will not be overturned. It is unprecedented for a Supreme Court case to be leaked, and we do not know how public opinion and the reaction to the leak might influence the justices. Thus, it is our time to get out on the streets and use our voices to rise up. Attend marches and rallies, spread the news through social media, and stay informed about current events in our nation. For other ways to get involved, check out our other post.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/03/business/dealbook/business-and-roe-v-wade.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473
https://www.npr.org/2022/05/03/1096141704/supreme-court-opinion-process https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/educational-resources/about-educational-outreach/activity-resources/supreme-1
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/04/25/if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned-whats-next
